Hillary won't shed a tear if Edwards wins Iowa
David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register writes that the Hillary-Obama squabble over foreign policy is most likely to help John Edwards. Well, Hillary won't shed a tear if Edwards wins Iowa. In fact, it's almost as good as winning Iowa herself. Yepsen's logic is that the spat will drive up both of their negatives, helping Edwards. Well, Hillary is pretty much maxed out on "negatives." It's like a woman with facial scars and missing teeth worrying about a knife fight with a fashion model. High negatives aren't new to Hillary.
As for Hillary worrying about helping Edwards too much, the new primary calendar changes things, and I'm not sure if Iowa-based media have taken that into account yet. The Fat Tuesday superprimary gives the national frontrunners a cushion against losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because the media's Chase for the Presidency narrative has three categories: the Frontrunner, the Challenger, and Hopeless Campaigns That Haven't Folded Yet. Winning in early states used to help a lot in winning later states, because it meant weeks or months of free media. The prizes in Iowa and New Hampshire were not a few dozen delegates but Frontrunner and Challenger status, cemented by weeks of national publicity. In 2008, there are only 15 days between the Iowa caucuses and the Florida primary. The Florida primary, not New Hampshire and not Iowa, is the first must-win contest for the Frontrunner.
Hillary is the Frontrunner, and will be as long as she leads in the national polls. That means Obama and Edwards are competing for the Challenger spot. Or more exactly, right now Edwards isn't even competitive for the Challenger spot. Winning Iowa would change that, creating an Obama-Edwards dogfight for the Challenger role. As long as there is not even a clear Challenger, the Frontrunner's path to the nomination is clear.
David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register writes that the Hillary-Obama squabble over foreign policy is most likely to help John Edwards. Well, Hillary won't shed a tear if Edwards wins Iowa. In fact, it's almost as good as winning Iowa herself. Yepsen's logic is that the spat will drive up both of their negatives, helping Edwards. Well, Hillary is pretty much maxed out on "negatives." It's like a woman with facial scars and missing teeth worrying about a knife fight with a fashion model. High negatives aren't new to Hillary.
As for Hillary worrying about helping Edwards too much, the new primary calendar changes things, and I'm not sure if Iowa-based media have taken that into account yet. The Fat Tuesday superprimary gives the national frontrunners a cushion against losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because the media's Chase for the Presidency narrative has three categories: the Frontrunner, the Challenger, and Hopeless Campaigns That Haven't Folded Yet. Winning in early states used to help a lot in winning later states, because it meant weeks or months of free media. The prizes in Iowa and New Hampshire were not a few dozen delegates but Frontrunner and Challenger status, cemented by weeks of national publicity. In 2008, there are only 15 days between the Iowa caucuses and the Florida primary. The Florida primary, not New Hampshire and not Iowa, is the first must-win contest for the Frontrunner.
Hillary is the Frontrunner, and will be as long as she leads in the national polls. That means Obama and Edwards are competing for the Challenger spot. Or more exactly, right now Edwards isn't even competitive for the Challenger spot. Winning Iowa would change that, creating an Obama-Edwards dogfight for the Challenger role. As long as there is not even a clear Challenger, the Frontrunner's path to the nomination is clear.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home