Presidential Prognosticating

There are only two men who can stop Rudy Giuliani from being the Republican nominee: Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

Giuliani is leading in almost every national poll while being often dismissed as someone who can't possibly win the nomination.

Romney, Thompson and McCain are all campaigning to be the "real conservative" alternative to Rudy after the early primaries. They're hoping that Rudy has hit his ceiling of 25-35% of the Republican vote, and that as other candidates drop out they can pick up the other conservative voters who will never vote for a pro-choicer. Once there is only one survivor out of the "conventional conservative candidates", that one will have 40%, which beats 30%, which makes him the frontrunner at a point when the race is almost over.

Nonsense. Rudy has a 75% positive rating among Republicans. Sure, pro-choice is a negative, pro-gay is a negative. But those are the only reasons GOP voters would have to choose Thompson or Romney over Rudy. All Rudy has to do is wait for the race to come down to two candidates, neutralize his lone opponent's only advantage, and he wins in a knockout. "Strong on Terror, Wrong on Abortion" beats "Weak on Abortion, Unknown on Terror."

Here's how he ends Fred Thompson's campaign, in the first debate after New Hampshire:

"Senator Thompson has made his career in Hollywood playing no-nonsense, take charge prosecutors and leaders. So, he's made a career out of playing Rudy Giuliani."

Followed up later with:

"Senator Thompson has said that show business and the Senate have a lot in common. Okay, I accept that. Let's talk about real life, I was a prosecutor and a mayor, I think we're all familiar with that. In real life, Senator Thompson was an abortion lobbyist. Not everyone knows that, but it's true. He lobbied the first Bush Administration for I believe the National Family Planning Association. Now, there's nothing wrong with that group, or that position. What's wrong is in turning around and pretending that you're a strong, consistent pro-lifer when you're not."

For Rudy to end Romney's political career in 100 words or less:

"In the early 1990s, Governor Romney and I were both pro-choice Northeastern Republicans. Well, I still am. I'm a man of my beliefs and I stand by them. Governor Romney can't say that. In every campaign he ran up in Massachusetts, he was pro-choice down the line, 100%. Now he's running for President in (name of red state) he's 100% pro-life. What does that say about his convictions? What happens when he's President and he has to do something that's right but it's going to be unpopular?"